Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/182107335?client_source=feed&format=rss
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Tuesday, January 3, 2012
You thought 2011 was tough? (Reuters)
NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Shaky Europe. Political gridlock. Volatile markets.
Familiar themes for those who lived through 2011, and investors should be ready to revisit them next year.
With a spiraling debt crisis in Europe, political upheaval around the world, and crumbling creditworthiness in major industrial nations, 2011 was a tough year to know where to invest. 2012 is unlikely to offer much respite.
The S&P 500, a measure of the biggest U.S. companies' market value, spent much of the year getting pushed up and down, flummoxing shorts and longs -- and scaring moms and pops away from stocks. It ended 2011 at 1,257.60, down 0.04 of a point.
But the S&P 500's tepid performance was encouraging, compared with other world equity markets. The United States may still be seen as a safe haven, though even that looks uncertain.
For every rally built on improving economic figures this year, selloffs were never far away on worries the European debt crisis would eventually drag the continent into a recession and perhaps the United States as well. That could continue in 2012.
China and other fast-growing emerging markets can no longer be leaned on as those economies slow. In 2011's last half, the poorest-performing sectors outside of banks were most connected to global growth -- materials, energy and industrial companies.
"There is a growing realization that the global economy is in jeopardy," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville. "There is uncertainty in every corner of the world."
That uncertainty fed substantial volatility in 2011. Despite the S&P's flat performance this year, there were 66 trading days when stocks moved in a 2 percent range. In 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed during a global financial crisis, there were more than 130 trading days when stocks swung that much. But that led to a flight from equities by retail investors.
U.S. equity funds had outflows in every month since May. More than $483 billion left U.S. mutual funds in 2011 through the year's second-to-last week, even though the U.S. market outperformed foreign stocks late in the game.
BEATING GLOBAL RIVALS
The S&P 500 ended the year off a scant 0.003 percent, the closest it has come to unchanged since 1947, according to Standard & Poor's. The Dow Jones industrial average finished 2011 with a 5.5 percent gain, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 1.8 percent.
In contrast, the MSCI world stocks index fell 9 percent, while the FTSEurofirst-300 index slid nearly 11 percent.
The darlings in the emerging markets fared the worst. China's Shanghai Composite index lost 22 percent, India's BSE sank 25 percent, and Brazil's Bovespa dropped 18 percent.
Strategists say the U.S. stock market may benefit from reasonable economic growth and attractive market valuation. The S&P 500 is expected to rise 6 percent by the end of 2012, according to the most recent poll of Wall Street strategists.
When Wall Street returns to work on Tuesday, it will face a holiday-shortened week and plenty of economic indicators. The U.S. stock market was closed on Monday in observance of New Year's Day.
This week, the Institute for Supply Management will give its December readings on U.S. manufacturing on Tuesday and the services sector on Thursday. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's December 13 policy-making meeting will be out on Tuesday, while domestic car sales for December will be reported on Wednesday.
But the most crucial numbers will come on Friday with the government's non-farm payrolls report. Economists expect a December gain of 150,000 jobs, compared with an increase of 120,000 jobs in November, a Reuters poll showed.
Volatility is likely to persist through early 2012 because of the uncertainty in Europe and rising concern about slowed earnings growth due to recent revisions.
The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio -- what investors are willing to pay for a dollar of earnings -- is under 12, below the 25-year average of 15. In weaker markets like Germany's DAX, the figure is below 9.
"We're building in a massive recession into these numbers," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. in San Francisco.
U.S. companies cutting earnings' outlooks recently outpaced those raising theirs by the greatest ratio in 10 years. Some sectors, such as materials, have seen a sharp drop in forecasts for the fourth quarter, Thomson Reuters data showed.
Downbeat earnings from Oracle Corp in late December shook confidence in the tech sector's health just ahead of the quarterly earnings season's start in January. Oracle joined a growing list of companies, including some of technology's biggest names, whose results and outlooks set off alarm bells.
Next year, S&P 500 earnings are seen rising 9.9 percent, down from an estimate of 13 percent in October.
RECESSION FEARS
Many economists believe the euro zone is already in recession. They forecast that the economies of the 17-nation bloc will stagnate in 2012 after contracting in this year's fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next.
Investors are worried that Italy and Spain will have to keep refinancing borrowings at unsustainable levels early next year, which could escalate the crisis.
The correlation between the U.S. stock market and the euro skyrocketed in 2011 as investors tied bets on risky assets to the euro's moves. That trend ebbed as equities rallied near the end of the year, but it is likely to flare up again.
So far the U.S. economy has stayed on course for moderate growth. Economists expect it to expand by about 2.1 percent next year. But it is unclear how a slowdown in the rest of the world will affect the economy stateside.
The key may be China rather than Europe.
"China is the 800-pound gorilla in the room and is probably the most important country to watch in terms of their contribution to global growth," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.
Chinese business confidence is weakening. A survey showed export orders fell for the first time in nearly three years.
The drop in materials shares in 2011's second half reflects worry about declining activity overseas. The S&P Materials Index lost nearly 14 percent in the last six months.
GRIDLOCK SHOCK
One of the pivotal events of 2011 was the downgrade of the United States' perfect triple-A credit rating. Standard & Poor's cited congressional bickering as the reason for the downgrade.
August's stalemate in Washington over raising the debt ceiling sparked a selloff that accelerated after the downgrade.
Investors expect the gridlock in Congress to get worse as the U.S. presidential election approaches in November. The election is likely to be close, which will not make legislative efforts to tackle high debt levels and weak demand any easier.
Rancor was in view again in December as Congress struggled to pass a two-month extension of U.S. payroll-tax cuts.
"There will be less certainty about taxation and regulation so that will inhibit business formation and business growth," said Brian Battle, a trader at Performance Trust Capital Partners in Chicago.
Goldman Sachs sees global growth highly susceptible in 2012 to even minor shocks - and those shocks may be political.
"Slowing growth (and in places outright contraction), public-sector cuts, and a renegotiation of the social compact between state and society in different parts of the world is an environment ripe for political turmoil," Goldman said in a note to clients.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday and Sunday. Questions or comments on this column can be e-mailed to: edward.krudy(at)thomsonreuters.com)
(Reporting By Edward Krudy; Editing by Jan Paschal)
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MBB: Washington State gets 81-76 win over Oregon State
SPOKANE, Wash. (AP) -- Pac-12 basketball teams play 18 league games, but Washington State coach Ken Bone said he feared an 0-2 start in conference play might prove fatal to the Cougars.
Brock Motum helped calm Bone's fears by recording team highs of 26 points and eight rebounds in an 81-76 win over Oregon State on Saturday at Spokane Arena.
"If we come out and we're flat or we just don't play well, then maybe we aren't that good," Bone said. "We kind of put it on our shoulders and put the onus on us as a team and as a staff: `Can we get the job done?' The guys did a nice job."
DaVonte Lacy scored 18 points for the Cougars (9-5, 1-1 Pac-12), who have won seven of their past eight games.
Jared Cunningham led Oregon State (10-4, 0-2) with 21 points. Backcourt partner Ahmad Starks scored 14 of his 18 points in the second half. Joe Burton added 14 points and seven rebounds.
Bone said Saturday's game represented "a real test of our character" after the Cougars opened Pac-12 play with a dismal performance Thursday in a 92-75 loss to the Oregon Ducks.
"They came out and smacked us," said WSU point guard Reggie Moore.
Moore was crucial to Saturday's win. He handled Oregon State's pressure defense expertly, making just one turnover in 35 minutes. He also scored eight points and handed out a season-high nine assists.
"He had great composure," Bone said.
Motum, a 6-foot-10 junior from Australia, worked well inside and from the perimeter. He was 10 of 15 from the field, including 3 of 5 on 3-pointers, and finished one short of his career high of 27 points. Motum scored WSU's first nine points.
"He's a competitor," Bone said. "He understands what was at stake."
Motum said he shared Bone's concern about the impact of an 0-2 start in league play. Motum said the Oregon State game represented a "gut check, and I thought we pulled through really well and came together as a team, shared the ball and played the right way. It was fun."
Washington State led almost all the way, but the Cougars had to deliver at the free-throw line in the final two minutes to clinch the game. Oregon State trailed only 77-74 after Starks hit his fifth 3-pointer with 51 seconds to go.
"We have the ability to fight back," Starks said. "We showed some toughness, but we need to start earlier."
Washington State shot 54 percent from the field, including 50 percent (6 of 12) on 3-pointers. Oregon State shot 46 percent.
The Beavers started the day ranked first in the Pac-12 and eighth in NCAA Division I in scoring, averaging 83.2 points per game. The Beavers were leading the league and tied for fourth nationally with 10.1 steals per game. They had 10 more Saturday, including four apiece by Cunningham and Starks.
"Jared's super fast," Starks said. "He anticipates a lot of things."
Source: http://www.king5.com/sports/MBB-Washington-State-gets-81-76-win-over-Oregon-State-136492303.html
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Monday, January 2, 2012
Britain's Prince Philip attends church (AP)
LONDON ? Britain's Prince Philip has joined the rest of the royal family to attend their traditional New Year's Day church service.
Queen Elizabeth II's 90-year-old husband was admitted to the hospital just before Christmas with chest pains and underwent a successful coronary stent procedure.
He missed the Royal Family's traditional Boxing Day shooting party on Monday at the queen's private Sandringham estate in Norfolk, an event he usually leads, but appeared cheerful as he arrived at Sandringham church Sunday morning. The queen arrived by car, but Philip walked the 400 meters (yards) from the house to the church.
Around 300 members of the public gathered outside the church to wish the royal family well.
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Australia will beat India 4-0, predicts McGrath
Sydney:?
Pace legend Glenn McGrath foresees Australia whitewashing India 4-0 in the ongoing Test series as he feels the home team's pace bowling attack, especially the young James Pattinson, gives it a decisive edge over the visitors.
"Yesterday, I said 3-0 but I stuffed up because I thought there were only three Tests. But definitely 4-0 now," said McGrath at the SCG where he was promoting McGrath Foundation for breast cancer.
"The way the guys have played at the moment I've been very impressed. I think a team builds itself around a bowling attack and you look at the bowling attack the team has at the moment.
"It will give the rest of the guys a lot of confidence so I'm very confident, as confident as I've been in years that this team is something special and expecting big things from them too," he added.
McGrath had words of praise for pace bowling sensation James Pattinson.
"I've been very impressed to look at James, the way he comes on to bowl. He's big, he's strong and he's nice and tall.
"He has a good action, he bowls in great areas and got good pace and a great attitude. I've really enjoyed watching him bowl and getting stuck into the Indian batsmen," he said.
Pattinson was man of the match at the MCG for his seven wickets and unbeaten knocks of 18 and 37 in two innings. Above all, he breathed fire and bowled with aggression at the Indians.
"Definitely, it's all about attitude and we're fast bowlers at the end of the day. You don't bowl half volleys and skip around the park smiling at batsmen, do you?" said McGrath.
"I wish I could bowl that quick and it's been a great start for his career to have a couple of five-wicket hauls under the belt. The confidence has got to be up.
"I think he's got a huge future. I wish I started my career as well as James has so I'm expecting huge things from him definitely."
The great fast bowler, who took 563 wickets during his career of 124 Tests, said Australia would do no harm if they opt to play four fast bowlers in this Test.
"It has spun in the past in Sydney. I like a spinner in the team as a bit of balance but with Ryan Harris with the form he was in before he got injured to bring him back into the team would offer so much and especially playing India in Australian conditions.
"I think the extra bounce we get extra bit of seam movement which actually works in our favour. I've been very impressed with our bowling attack, the way we bowled in Melbourne was great so I'm expecting big things from the boys in this Test match also," he said.
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Sunday, January 1, 2012
Why Women Report Being in Worse Health than Men
When asked to rate their own health, women, on average, consistently report being in worse health than men do, and a new study from researchers in Spain says this is because women have a higher rate of chronic diseases ? contradicting a previous theory that women's lower self-rated health is simply a reporting bias.
"In general practice, there has been this idea that women over-report health problems, or are more likely to say they are ill or pay attention to their symptoms than men," said first author of the study Davide Malmusi, of the Public Health Agency of Barcelona. "We wanted to test whether their differences in self-reported health could in fact be explained by the difference in the prevalence of chronic conditions."
The new findings were published Dec. 16 in the European Journal of Public Health.
Self-reporting health
Malmusi and colleagues across Spain gathered data from Spain's 2006 National Health Survey, which included data from face-to-face interviews with more than 29,000 people on their health. About half of the study participants were between the ages of 16 and 44; the other half was older.
The survey included the question, "Over the last 12 months, would you say your overall health has been very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor?" as well as a question on whether health problems had limited people's activities over the previous six months.
Of the women interviewed, 38.8 percent rated their health as poor or very poor, and 25.7 percent reported chronic limitation of activity. Of the men in the study, only 27 percent had poor self-rated health, and 19.3 percent reported chronic limitation of activity.
But when the researchers matched up the number of chronic conditions each person had with his or her health rating, the gender difference disappeared. Having a higher number of chronic conditions correlated with poorer self-rated health to the same degree in both genders.?
For men and women with the same conditions, or the same number of conditions, women were no more likely to claim poorer health.
"There's been a longstanding debate about whether women's self-reported health is a reporting bias or not," said sociologist Ellen Annandale of the University of Leicester in the United Kingdom, who was uninvolved in the new work. "Some researchers argue that women might over-report health problems, and men might under-report. This study supports wider research that women's poorer self-reported health reflects underlying chronic health problems."
The root of chronic health problems
What the new study doesn't answer, Annandale said, is why women have a higher rate of chronic health problems. The data did reveal that women's higher rate of chronic problems can be most strongly attributed to five chronic disorders: arthritis, mental disorders, neck pain, headaches and back pain. But further research will be needed to explain why.
Malmusi said it is likely a mix of biological and social factors.
"Gender influences that way that people are treated and diagnosed in health systems," Annandale said. "It influences the kind of health conditions that men and women suffer from, the way people relate to their own bodies, and what kind of access to health care they have."
Understanding gender differences in health can help scientists and doctors find ways to better treat patients, she said.
Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=7a237001a93d875d807f8c0216256373
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German minister: will stabilize eurozone in 2012 (AP)
BERLIN ? Germany's finance minister says he is confident that Europe's politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent's common currency together.
Wolfgang Schaeuble acknowledged in an interview with business daily Handelsblatt published Friday that major problems that have built up over a long time remain to be tackled in some countries.
However, he added, "I think we will be far enough along in the next 12 months that we will have banished the dangers of contagion and stabilized the eurozone."
Asked whether he could rule out the 17-nation eurozone breaking up, Schaeuble was quoted as saying: "According to everything that I know at the moment, yes." He insisted that Europe's politicians "are doing everything to prevent the common currency falling apart."
"Of course, the European Union cannot force anyone to stay in if they don't want to belong any more," he added. "But no such development can be seen at the moment."
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, is a key player in the long-running battle to stem the eurozone debt crisis. It has backed the strategy of getting governments to embark on often-savage austerity measures to reduce deficits.
But it has opposed measures such as issuing jointly backed eurobonds and argued that there is no quick fix to the crisis, expressing great skepticism about the wisdom of a major government bond-buying drive by the European Central Bank that is advocated by many as a way of forcing down struggling countries' borrowing costs.
"The talk of bazookas and the like only leads to us not tackling sustainably the causes of the crisis," Schaeuble was quoted as saying.
The eurozone will quickly face new challenges in 2012, with both Italy and Spain needing to borrow large amounts of money early in the new year. Both countries face high borrowing costs.
Schaeuble acknowledged that Europe's refinancing needs in early 2012 are "not trivial."
"But the more we win back confidence on the markets, the more investors ... will invest in the eurozone, and not just in German bonds," he said. "There is no shortage of money worldwide."
"In case of doubt, a somewhat higher interest rate has to be paid for some government bonds," Schaeuble said. "That is not damaging per se and also can encourage the understanding that we have to tackle the actual causes of the crisis: overly high debts and a lack of competitiveness."
Schaeuble said he sees no sign of a credit crunch in Germany. Asked about other countries, he pointed to the ECB's moves to provide massive long-term loans to banks.
"Given the measures the ECB has taken to provide banks with liquidity, it is hard to imagine that banks would not be in a position to provide sufficient loans to business," he said.
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